In June 23, 2016 the British decided that
the benefits of belonging to the EU was no longer superior to the costs of the
free movement of immigration. Therefore, the UK, alongside the European Union
agreed that the UK’s exits from the economic and political partnership that is
the EU would take date on March 29,2019, giving 2 years for both parties to get
to an agreement. There are three possible outcomes:
1. Keep May’s deal or accept one similar
2. Make no deal- “No Deal Brexit”
3. Vote again
On March 12, 2019 the United Kingdom’s parliament
voted against Prime Minister Theresa May agreement with the European Union.
Agreement that was divided in two parts- blinding withdraw agreement and
non-binding set of principles to guide future negotiations, that stated that
the UK remains within the Customs Union, there would be no tariffs on each
other’s imports, the UK would have complete access to the capital, any European
citizen could live in the UK without a work visa and the UK would abide by the
European court of Judgement and the European Union’s laws.
Since the UK’s parliament didn’t get to
any conclusion, it’s possible for both the UK and the EU to get to an agreement
to extend the Brexit process.
There
are several consequences for both
the UK and the EU if Brexit truly happens. First of all, studies say that the United Kingdom’s economy will slow down
thanks to the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome. In case of a Hard
Brexit- besides leaving the EU, the UK would no longer participate in the single
market of the EU, the cost on exports will raise, the employment rate would
fall- is estimated that 5000 people will lose jobs on London alone, companies
would will no longer use an English-speaking entry into the European Union’s
Economy, housing prices would fall, England would lose it’s ability to bid on
public contractors in any EU’s country- especially banking and the United
Kingdom could lose Scotland, who voted for remain in EU..
There’s
a possibility of both parties don’t get to an agreement – “No deal Brexit”.
In that situation, there would be no transaction period and no guaranties on citizen’s
rights, therefore it’s estimated that the tariffs would be reposed, making the
price of the imports to increase, causing an increasing on inflation on food
and decrease of the standard of living, as one third of the food in the UK
comes from importation.
Furthermore, the European Union suffers
greatly as well, besides losing a big economy, there is a possibility for them
to lose others as well or even disintegrate. Since the decision to advance on Brexit
happen, anti-immigration’s parties won great strength in Europe, making it
possible for this phenomenon to expand over Europe, especially France and
Germany. Making the EU lose two of it’s greatest and biggest economies and
later dissolve.
Even though the departure of the UK from
the Union still hasn’t happen, it’s safe to say that it would be harmful for
both ways, and that both parties should make an effort to stay united.
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